It's sometimes naively thought that short-term political prediction is easier than long-term prediction, because more contingencies pile up the further out in time a prediction reaches. I'll illustrate a more sophisticated view, based on what I'll call 'resilient stresses' - problems that are hard to resolve, therefore unlikely to resolve, and that facilitate longer-term prediction by making alternative pathways unstable - in South Africa. The theory here might sound imposing but it's actually very light and intuitive. A main takeaway is about political conditions in South Africa, and how they're interacting with ideologies and identities.
Don Ross is the Dean of Waikato Management School. He was previously Dean of the Faculty of Commerce at the University of Cape Town (UCT) in South Africa, where he retains a part-time appointment as Professor of Economics. He is also part-time Program Director (Methodology) at the Centre for Economic Analysis of Risk at Georgia State University in Atlanta. His research interests include the philosophy of science and cognitive science, and the foundations of microeconomics, applied game theory, experimental economics. He also researchers in the area of infrastructure, trade and industry policy in Africa.