The Forecasts

Using updated data and the same method we used for our 2011-2015 forecasts, we have produced a new set of forecasts for 2016-2020 Given our reasonably good performance for 2011-2015, we expect similar performance from these forecasts. For more information on our evaluation of the 2015-20 forecasts, see our report: New Forecasts for 2016-2020 & Evaluation of our Forecasts for 2011-2015.

New Forecasts, 2016-2020

Top 15 countries at risk of the onset of genocide or politicide.

1 South Sudan
2 Sudan
3 Iraq
4 Nigeria
5 Yemen
6 Syria
7 Afghanistan
8 Somalia
9 Russia
10 Libya
11 Mali
12 Central African Republic
13 Pakistan
14 Egypt
15 Algeria

 

Map of Predicted Genocide/Politicide Risk, 2016-2020

The risk categories correspond to the following: Highest Risk = top 1% of states ranked by risk, High Risk = top 5% of states ranked by risk, Moderate Risk = top 10% of states ranked by risk, Low Risk = top 25% of states ranked by risk, Lowest Risk = outside of the top 25% of ranked by risk.
 

Previous Forecasts, 2011-2015

Top 15 countries at risk of the onset of genocide or politicide.

1 Central African Republic
2 Democratic Republic of the Congo
3 Chad
4 Somalia
5 Angolia
6 Myanmar
7 Sri Lanka
8 Ecuador
9 Burundi
10 Afghanistan
11 Syria
12 Guinea
13 Cameroon
14 Uganda
15 Libya

 

Updated:  22 September, 2017/Responsible Officer:  College Dean/Page Contact:  CASS Marketing & Communications