2019 Federal Election - ANU Experts have their say

The 2019 Federal election was held on 18 May, and below is where you will find a full overview of ANU academics' perspectives on the election. Click on the relevant headline to be directed to the original article.


In the Media:


Family Guy Emerges as New Conservative Hero after Shock Victory in Australia (Bloomberg, via Yahoo News)

Dr Jill Sheppard | Yahoo/Bloomberg | 20 May 2019

Jill Sheppard [...]said time would tell how long Morrison’s “sheen within the Liberal party lasts.”  “I don’t know that they are quite as united as they appeared on Saturday night,” she said in an interview with Bloomberg TV. “This isn’t a team that is very strongly united on policies generally or on political strategy either,” she said. “He will face huge problems once this gloss wears off.”


Morrison has led the Coalition to a ‘miracle’ win, but how do they govern from here?

Dr Maria Taflaga | The Conversation | 20 May 2019

There remain several pressing policy questions particularly around climate and energy. The government does not have a mandate to act in these policy domains and these are issues that are difficult internally for the Coalition.


Australia Election Results: Prime Minister Scott Morrison Seizes a Stunning Win

Prof Patrick Dumont, Dr Jill Sheppard | The New York Times | 20 May 2019

He portrayed himself “as the good bloke, the good father, the buddy, the mate that Australians would like to have,” said Patrick Dumont, a professor of political science at the Australian National University.


Fear of change: Negative politics wins Australia election

Senior Fellow Mark Kenny | The Jakarta Post | 19 May 2019

"I think we're in an age where it is very difficult to communicate big ideas and to sell imagery," Kenny told AFP, adding that right-wing populists around the world had been successful in invoking nostalgia and anxiety over the future to win elections.


Australian conservatives celebrate ‘miracle’ election victory

Prof Ian McAllister | Financial Times | 19 May 2019

Labor promoted a mixed message on coal, trying to appeal to environmentalists who want to restrict coal mining, while also backing mining jobs. That strategy appears to have backfired, said Ian McAllister, professor of politics at Australian National University.


Are independents part of a ‘green-left’ conspiracy? New research finds they are more the ‘sensible centre’

Prof Patrick Dumont, Feo Snagovsky  | The Conversation | 17 May 2019

Data from smartvote Australia, a voting advice application developed by the Australian National University (ANU), shows most independents actually take policy positions somewhere between Labor and the Liberals. There is also considerable variance in the positions they take.


'A silent majority': Women look to exercise power as parties chase their vote

Prof Ian McAllister  | The Sydney Morning Herald | 11 May 2019

Men are more likely to be driven by economic expectations, national debt, border security, things like that. Women are more likely to be in favour of environmentalism, climate change, soft social issues," says McAllister.


2019 election: Why politics is toxic for Australia’s women

Dr Jill Sheppard, Blair Williams  | BBC Online | 16 May 2019

Larrikins and aggro fit within the wider stereotypes of Australian identity, says political researcher Blair Williams from the Australian National University.  "We have these models of football players, surf lifesavers, that sort of blokey masculinity that someone like Tony Abbott definitely displayed. But it leaves women out."


'I just stood in the background': Piers Akerman on campaign trail with Tony Abbott in Warringah

Mark Kenny | The Age | 15 April 2019

Veteran News Corp columnist Piers Akerman has rejected criticism directed at him for joining former Prime Minister Tony Abbott on the campaign trail in his seat of Warringah on the weekend. Former Sydney Morning Herald and The Age journalist Mark Kenny said on the ABC's Insiders on Sunday morning that "a lot of people are looking at this thinking: 'This surely crosses a line'."


From the country to Canberra: Who is Nationals leader Michael McCormack?

Dr Jill Sheppard | SBS News | 15 April 2019

Dr Jill Sheppard...  said Mr McCormack's modus operandi seems to be a mirror-image of Mr Joyce's. "I think he is popular among his colleagues, but they worry that he's not very popular with the electorate,” Dr Sheppard said. “Barnaby Joyce is not very popular with his colleagues, but has been, a lot more popular with rural voters."


Election campaign will be fought along classic divisions: analyst

Dr Jill Sheppard | ABC Radio | 11 April 2019

[Dr Sheppard] said the campaign would be fought along the classic lines of economic management, on the Liberal side, and public health, education and inequality on the Labor side.

For that reason, she said, the parties are increasingly unlikely to bring up issues associated with the other party.


Election to focus on economy but voters losing faith in politicians' ability to affect it

Dr Jill Sheppard | ABC News | 11 April 2019

"Voters that think about economy — they tend to prefer the Liberal Party, and those that think about health, education and inequality — they prefer the Labor Party," Dr Sheppard said.

"But if we are not convinced that the government can actually have an economic effect, then the Liberal Party is going to have to broaden its base to convince people it can actually make a difference."


Federal election 2019: NSW must watch battles

Dr Jill Sheppard | Daily Telegraph | 11 April 2019

“Kerryn Phelps typifies the current rush of prominent independent candidates: smart, economically conservative, socially liberal, and with a high profile that precedes their political career,” [Dr Jill Sheppard] said.


From union boss to possible PM: Who is Bill Shorten?

Dr Jill Sheppard | SBS News | 11 April 2019

The high likelihood that Labor will win the election is down to “a few factors” said Jill Sheppard "It probably has a little bit to do with Bill Shorten seeming confident at the moment... [and] it probably has a bit to do with the Liberal Party changing prime ministers through their last term in government - but as much as anything, it might just be that the Australian voters feel the country is ready for change".

Updated:  20 May 2019/Responsible Officer:  Head of School/Page Contact:  CASS Marketing & Communications