Abstract

Democracies around the world are confronting rising polarisation, driven by changes in media environments, political incentives, and social fragmentation. Australia has not experienced the severe divisions seen in some comparable democracies, but recent evidence shows emerging risks across political trust, social cohesion, and perceived fairness. These trends highlight the need for more systematic tools to understand how Australians relate to one another and to democratic institutions.

Australia benefits from a rich survey infrastructure, including Mapping Social Cohesion, the Australian Election Study, ANUpoll, the McKinnon Poll, and the Election Monitoring Survey Series. While these provide valuable insights, they do not consistently capture the psychological, social, and relational factors that underpin cohesion and polarisation. Existing monitoring efforts therefore remain fragmented.

This paper examines how values-based segmentation could offer an additional tool for understanding the drivers of cohesion and division in Australia. Drawing on comparative experience from the US, UK, Germany, France, Poland, and Brazil, the paper outlines the methodology and approach to understand population groups that cut across demographic and partisan categories, offering a sharper lens on shared values, areas of tension, and the dynamics that shape public responses to contested issues.

The paper reviews the current Australian data landscape, identify key gaps, and outline how a segmentation approach could be adapted to local conditions. This includes opportunities to link attitudinal and qualitative insights with Australia’s administrative data environment. Used alongside existing programs and embedded within broader democratic-resilience efforts, such an approach may strengthen the evidence base for policy, communications, and civic initiatives seeking to support cohesion and moderate future risks of polarisation. 
 

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