The Forecasts
Using updated data and the same method we used for our 2011-2015 forecasts, we have produced a new set of forecasts for 2016-2020 Given our reasonably good performance for 2011-2015, we expect similar performance from these forecasts. For more information on our evaluation of the 2015-20 forecasts, see our report: New Forecasts for 2016-2020 & Evaluation of our Forecasts for 2011-2015.
New Forecasts, 2016-2020
Top 15 countries at risk of the onset of genocide or politicide.
| 1 | South Sudan |
| 2 | Sudan |
| 3 | Iraq |
| 4 | Nigeria |
| 5 | Yemen |
| 6 | Syria |
| 7 | Afghanistan |
| 8 | Somalia |
| 9 | Russia |
| 10 | Libya |
| 11 | Mali |
| 12 | Central African Republic |
| 13 | Pakistan |
| 14 | Egypt |
| 15 | Algeria |
Map of Predicted Genocide/Politicide Risk, 2016-2020
The risk categories correspond to the following: Highest Risk = top 1% of states ranked by risk, High Risk = top 5% of states ranked by risk, Moderate Risk = top 10% of states ranked by risk, Low Risk = top 25% of states ranked by risk, Lowest Risk = outside of the top 25% of ranked by risk.
Previous Forecasts, 2011-2015
Top 15 countries at risk of the onset of genocide or politicide.
| 1 | Central African Republic |
| 2 | Democratic Republic of the Congo |
| 3 | Chad |
| 4 | Somalia |
| 5 | Angolia |
| 6 | Myanmar |
| 7 | Sri Lanka |
| 8 | Ecuador |
| 9 | Burundi |
| 10 | Afghanistan |
| 11 | Syria |
| 12 | Guinea |
| 13 | Cameroon |
| 14 | Uganda |
| 15 | Libya |
