New Forecasts, 2024-2026
Using updated data and methods similar to our previous forecasts, we have produced a new set of forecasts for 2024-2026. These forecasts were produced on 25 February 2024, using only data up to the end of 2022.
Unfortunately, we discovered a data error and predictions created on 1 February and posted slightly after that were affected and had to be removed.
A brief report with details of the data and model, and also replication files in R are available here.
Top 15 countries at risk of the onset of genocide or politicide.
| 1 | Afghanistan |
| 2 | Pakistan |
| 3 | Somalia |
| 4 | Tajikistan |
| 5 | Nigeria |
| 6 | Iran |
| 7 | Yemen |
| 8 | Philippines |
| 9 | Syria |
| 10 | Egypt |
| 11 | Cameroon |
| 12 | Turkey |
| 13 | Rwanda |
| 14 | Chad |
| 15 | Ethiopia |
Additional 5 countries at substantial risk.
| 16 | Libya |
| 17 | South Sudan |
| 18 | Iraq |
| 19 | Uganda |
| 20 | Mozambique |
Map of Predicted Genocide/Politicide Risk, 2024-2026
Previous Forecasts, 2021-2023
Using updated data and similar method used for our previous forecasts, we have produced a new set of forecasts for 2021-2023. These forecasts were produced on 10 April 2021, using only data up to the end of 2020. The AFP team has experienced significantly increased workload due to the consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic, which led to this delay in producing the forecasts. For basic information on the forecasting model, data, and results, please see this brief report.
Top 15 countries at risk of the onset of genocide or politicide.
| 1 | Ethiopia |
| 2 | Yemen |
| 3 | Democratic Republic of the Congo |
| 4 | South Sudan |
| 5 | Afghanistan |
| 6 | Libya |
| 7 | Eritrea |
| 8 | Myanmar |
| 9 | Iran |
| 10 | Burundi |
| 11 | Sudan |
| 12 | Turkey |
| 13 | Cameroon |
| 14 | Egypt |
| 15 | Burkina Faso |
Additional 5 countries at substantial risk.
| 16 | Syria |
| 17 | Pakistan |
| 18 | Saudi Arabia |
| 19 | Angola |
| 20 | Bangladesh |
Map of Predicted Genocide/Politicide Risk, 2021-2023
The risk categories correspond to the following: Highest Risk = top 1% of states ranked by risk, High Risk = top 5% of states ranked by risk, Moderate Risk = top 10% of states ranked by risk, Low Risk = top 25% of states ranked by risk, Lowest Risk = outside of the top 25% of ranked by risk.
Previous Forecasts, 2016-2020
Using updated data and the same method we used for our 2011-2015 forecasts, we produced a new set of forecasts for 2016-2020 Given our reasonably good performance for 2011-2015, we expect similar performance from these forecasts. For more information on our evaluation of the 2015-20 forecasts, see our report: Forecasts for 2016-2020 & Evaluation of our Forecasts for 2011-2015.
Top 15 countries at risk of the onset of genocide or politicide.
| 1 | South Sudan |
| 2 | Sudan |
| 3 | Iraq |
| 4 | Nigeria |
| 5 | Yemen |
| 6 | Syria |
| 7 | Afghanistan |
| 8 | Somalia |
| 9 | Russia |
| 10 | Libya |
| 11 | Mali |
| 12 | Central African Republic |
| 13 | Pakistan |
| 14 | Egypt |
| 15 | Algeria |
Map of Predicted Genocide/Politicide Risk, 2016-2020
The risk categories correspond to the following: Highest Risk = top 1% of states ranked by risk, High Risk = top 5% of states ranked by risk, Moderate Risk = top 10% of states ranked by risk, Low Risk = top 25% of states ranked by risk, Lowest Risk = outside of the top 25% of ranked by risk.
Previous Forecasts, 2011-2015
Top 15 countries at risk of the onset of genocide or politicide.
| 1 | Central African Republic |
| 2 | Democratic Republic of the Congo |
| 3 | Chad |
| 4 | Somalia |
| 5 | Angolia |
| 6 | Myanmar |
| 7 | Sri Lanka |
| 8 | Ecuador |
| 9 | Burundi |
| 10 | Afghanistan |
| 11 | Syria |
| 12 | Guinea |
| 13 | Cameroon |
| 14 | Uganda |
| 15 | Libya |