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HomeResearchResearch ProjectsAtrocity Forecasting ProjectThe Forecasts
The Forecasts

New Forecasts, 2024-2026

Using updated data and methods similar to our previous forecasts, we have produced a new set of forecasts for 2024-2026. These forecasts were produced on 25 February 2024, using only data up to the end of 2022. 

Unfortunately, we discovered a data error and predictions created on 1 February and posted slightly after that were affected and had to be removed.

A brief report with details of the data and model, and also replication files in R are available here.

Top 15 countries at risk of the onset of genocide or politicide.

1Afghanistan
2Pakistan
3Somalia
4Tajikistan
5Nigeria
6Iran
7Yemen
8Philippines
9Syria
10Egypt
11Cameroon
12Turkey
13Rwanda
14Chad
15Ethiopia

Additional 5 countries at substantial risk.

16Libya
17South Sudan
18Iraq
19Uganda
20Mozambique

Map of Predicted Genocide/Politicide Risk, 2024-2026

Previous Forecasts, 2021-2023

Using updated data and similar method used for our previous forecasts, we have produced a new set of forecasts for 2021-2023. These forecasts were produced on 10 April 2021, using only data up to the end of 2020. The AFP team has experienced significantly increased workload due to the consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic, which led to this delay in producing the forecasts. For basic information on the forecasting model, data, and results, please see this brief report.

Top 15 countries at risk of the onset of genocide or politicide.

1Ethiopia
2Yemen
3Democratic Republic of the Congo
4South Sudan
5Afghanistan
6Libya
7Eritrea
8Myanmar
9Iran
10Burundi
11Sudan
12Turkey
13Cameroon
14Egypt
15Burkina Faso

Additional 5 countries at substantial risk.

16Syria
17Pakistan
18Saudi Arabia
19Angola
20Bangladesh

 

Map of Predicted Genocide/Politicide Risk, 2021-2023

The risk categories correspond to the following: Highest Risk = top 1% of states ranked by risk, High Risk = top 5% of states ranked by risk, Moderate Risk = top 10% of states ranked by risk, Low Risk = top 25% of states ranked by risk, Lowest Risk = outside of the top 25% of ranked by risk.

 

Previous Forecasts, 2016-2020

Using updated data and the same method we used for our 2011-2015 forecasts, we produced a new set of forecasts for 2016-2020 Given our reasonably good performance for 2011-2015, we expect similar performance from these forecasts. For more information on our evaluation of the 2015-20 forecasts, see our report:  Forecasts for 2016-2020 & Evaluation of our Forecasts for 2011-2015.

Top 15 countries at risk of the onset of genocide or politicide.

1South Sudan
2Sudan
3Iraq
4Nigeria
5Yemen
6Syria
7Afghanistan
8Somalia
9Russia
10Libya
11Mali
12Central African Republic
13Pakistan
14Egypt
15Algeria

 

Map of Predicted Genocide/Politicide Risk, 2016-2020

The risk categories correspond to the following: Highest Risk = top 1% of states ranked by risk, High Risk = top 5% of states ranked by risk, Moderate Risk = top 10% of states ranked by risk, Low Risk = top 25% of states ranked by risk, Lowest Risk = outside of the top 25% of ranked by risk.

 

Previous Forecasts, 2011-2015

Top 15 countries at risk of the onset of genocide or politicide.

1Central African Republic
2Democratic Republic of the Congo
3Chad
4Somalia
5Angolia
6Myanmar
7Sri Lanka
8Ecuador
9Burundi
10Afghanistan
11Syria
12Guinea
13Cameroon
14Uganda
15Libya