The Forecasts

New Forecasts, 2021-2023

Using updated data and similar method used for our previous forecasts, we have produced a new set of forecasts for 2021-2023. These forecasts were produced on 10 April 2021, using only data up to the end of 2020. The AFP team has experienced significantly increased workload due to the consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic, which led to this delay in producing the forecasts. For basic information on the forecasting model, data, and results, please see this brief report

Top 15 countries at risk of the onset of genocide or politicide.

1 Ethiopia
2 Yemen
3 Democrtic Republic of the Congo
4 South Sudan
5 Afghanistan
6 Libya
7 Eritrea
8 Myanmar
9 Iran
10 Burundi
11 Sudan
12 Turkey
13 Cameroon
14

Egypt

15 Burkina Faso

Additional 5 countries at substantial risk.

16 Syria
17 Pakistan
18 Saudi Arabia
19 Angola
20 Bangladesh


Previous Forecasts, 2016-2020

Using updated data and the same method we used for our 2011-2015 forecasts, we have produced a new set of forecasts for 2016-2020 Given our reasonably good performance for 2011-2015, we expect similar performance from these forecasts. For more information on our evaluation of the 2015-20 forecasts, see our report:  Forecasts for 2016-2020 & Evaluation of our Forecasts for 2011-2015.

Top 15 countries at risk of the onset of genocide or politicide.

1 South Sudan
2 Sudan
3 Iraq
4 Nigeria
5 Yemen
6 Syria
7 Afghanistan
8 Somalia
9 Russia
10 Libya
11 Mali
12 Central African Republic
13 Pakistan
14 Egypt
15 Algeria

 

Map of Predicted Genocide/Politicide Risk, 2016-2020

The risk categories correspond to the following: Highest Risk = top 1% of states ranked by risk, High Risk = top 5% of states ranked by risk, Moderate Risk = top 10% of states ranked by risk, Low Risk = top 25% of states ranked by risk, Lowest Risk = outside of the top 25% of ranked by risk.
 

Previous Forecasts, 2011-2015

Top 15 countries at risk of the onset of genocide or politicide.

1 Central African Republic
2 Democratic Republic of the Congo
3 Chad
4 Somalia
5 Angolia
6 Myanmar
7 Sri Lanka
8 Ecuador
9 Burundi
10 Afghanistan
11 Syria
12 Guinea
13 Cameroon
14 Uganda
15 Libya

 

Updated:  16 April 2021/Responsible Officer:  Head of School/Page Contact:  CASS Marketing & Communications