Reports

Our reports designed for policy analysts can be accessed here.

• New Forecasts for 2016-2020 & Evaluation of our Forecasts for 201 1-2015 (PDF)
   
• Global Genocide/Politicide Forecasting Report for 2012 (PDF - High Res)
  Global Genocide/Politicide Forecasting Report for 2012 (PDF - Low Res)
   
• Asia-Pacific Genocide/Politicide Forecasting Report for 2012 (PDF - High Res)
  Asia-Pacific Genocide/Politicide Forecasting Report for 2012 (PDF - Low Res)

Academic Papers

Our academic papers can be accessed here:

• Benjamin E. Goldsmith & Charles Butcher. [in press 2018]. “Genocide Forecasting: Past Accuracy and New Forecasts to 2020,” Journal of Genocide Research. Pre-published online here. Supplementary Material available here.

• Sascha Nanlohy, Charles Butcher & Benjamin E. Goldsmith. 2017. “The Policy Value of Quantitative Atrocity Forecasting Models,” The RUSI Journal 162, 2: 24-32. Available here.

• Charles Butcher and Benjamin E. Goldsmith. 2016. "Economic Risk Factors and Predictive Modelling of Genocide and Mass Killing," in Jurgen Brauer and Charles Anderton, eds. Economic Aspects of Genocide, Mass Killing, and Their Prevention: A Handbook for Scholars and Policymakers. New York: Oxford University Press, pp. 569-90.
   
• Charles Butcher & Benjamin E. Goldsmith. 2017. "Elections, Ethnicity, and Political Instability," Comparative Political Studies 50, 10: 1390-1419. Working paper available at SSRN here.

• Charles Butcher, Benjamin E. Goldsmith, Sascha Nanlohy, Arcot Sowmya, David Muchlinski 2020. "Introducing the Targeted Mass Killing Data Set for the Study and Forecasting of Mass Atrocities" Journal of Conflict Resolution. You can download the publication here.

• Charles Butcher, 2015, ''Capital Punishment': Bargaining and the geography of civil war', Journal of Peace Research, vol. 52 no. 2 171-186. Available here.
   
• Benjamin E. Goldsmith, Charles Butcher, Dimitri Semenovich and Arcot Sowmya, 2013, 'Forecasting the onset of genocide and politicide: Annual out-of-sample forecasts on a global dataset, 1988–2003', Journal of Peace Research, vol. 50 no. 4 437-452. Available here. Replication Materials (Zip file).
   
• Benjamin E. Goldsmith, Charles Butcher, Dimitri Semenovich and Arcot Sowmya, 2012, 'A Two Stage Approach to Predicting Genocide and Politicide Onset in a Global Dataset', Available at SSRN.
   
• Benjamin E. Goldsmith, Charles Butcher, Dimitri Semenovich and Arcot Sowmya, 2012, 'Elections and Political Instability: Ballots to Bullets, Voting to Violence?' Available at SSRN here.
   
• Dimitri Semenovich, Arcot Sowmya, Benjamin E. Goldsmith (2012). Predicting onsets of genocide with sparse additive models. 21st International Conference on Pattern Recognition, ICPR 2012, Piscataway, New Jersey: (IEEE) Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers. Available here. (2012 ICPR)
   
• Benjamin E. Goldsmith, Dimitri Semenovich and Arcot Sowmya, 2013, 'Political Instability and Genocide: Comparing Causes in Asia and the Pacific and Globally'. In Deborah Mayersen, Annie Pohlman (Eds.), Genocide and Mass Atrocities in Asia: Legacies and prevention, (pp. 136-157). Abingdon, UK: Routledge. Available here. Also available at SSRN here.