Reports

Our reports designed for policy analysts can be accessed here.

• New Forecasts for 2016-2020 & Evaluation of our Forecasts for 201 1-2015 (PDF)
   
• Global Genocide/Politicide Forecasting Report for 2012 (PDF - High Res)
  Global Genocide/Politicide Forecasting Report for 2012 (PDF - Low Res)
   
• Asia-Pacific Genocide/Politicide Forecasting Report for 2012 (PDF - High Res)
  Asia-Pacific Genocide/Politicide Forecasting Report for 2012 (PDF - Low Res)

Academic Papers

Our academic papers can be accessed here:

• Krzywicki, A., Muchlinski, D., Sowmya, A. and Goldsmith, B. E. (2022). ‘From academia to policymakers: A methodology for real-time forecasting of infrequent events’, Journal of Computational Social Science, 5:1489-1510. Available here.

• Butcher, C., Goldsmith, B. E., Nanlohy, S., Sowmya, A. and Muchlinski, D. (2020). ‘Introducing the Targeted Mass Killing Dataset for the Study and Forecasting of Mass Atrocities,” Journal of Conflict Resolution 64, 7-8: 1524-1547. Available here.

• Nanlohy, S., Butcher, C. and Goldsmith, B. E. (2017). ‘The Policy Value of Quantitative Atrocity Forecasting Models’ The RUSI Journal 162, 2: 24-32. Available here.

• Butcher, C. and Goldsmith, B. E. (2017). ‘Elections, Ethnicity, and Political Instability’ Comparative Political Studies 50, 10: 1390-1419. Working paper available at SSRN here.

• Butcher, C. and Goldsmith, B. E. (2016). ‘Economic Risk Factors and Predictive Modelling of Genocide and Mass Killing’ in Jurgen Brauer and Charles Anderton, eds. Economic Aspects of Genocide, Mass Killing, and Their Prevention: A Handbook for Scholars and Policymakers. New York: Oxford University Press, pp. 569-90.

• Butcher, C. (2015) ‘'Capital Punishment': Bargaining and the geography of civil war', Journal of Peace Research, vol. 52 no. 2 171-186. Available here.

• Goldsmith, B. E., Butcher, C., Semenovich, D. and Sowmya, A. (2013) 'Forecasting the onset of genocide and politicide: Annual out-of-sample forecasts on a global dataset, 1988–2003', Journal of Peace Research, vol. 50 no. 4 437-452. Available here. Replication Materials (Zip file).

• Goldsmith, B. E., Semenovich, D. and Sowmya, A. (2013), 'Political Instability and Genocide: Comparing Causes in Asia and the Pacific and Globally'. In Deborah Mayersen, Annie Pohlman (Eds.), Genocide and Mass Atrocities in Asia: Legacies and prevention, (pp. 136-157). Abingdon, UK: Routledge. Available here. Also available at SSRN here.

• Goldsmith, B. E., Butcher, C., Semenovich, D. and Sowmya, A. (2012) 'A Two-Stage Approach to Predicting Genocide and Politicide Onset in a Global Dataset', Available at SSRN.

• Goldsmith, B. E., Butcher, C., Semenovich, D. and Sowmya, A. (2012) 'Elections and Political Instability: Ballots to Bullets, Voting to Violence?' Available at SSRN here.

• Semenovich, D., Sowmya, A. and Goldsmith, B. E. (2012). ‘Predicting onsets of genocide with sparse additive models’. 21st International Conference on Pattern Recognition, ICPR 2012, Piscataway, New Jersey: (IEEE) Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers. Available here. (2012 ICPR)