Abstract

Public confidence in democracy and institutions is often shaped by broader social and economic conditions. This study examines Australians' perceptions of social and financial wellbeing, their views on the past and future, and their trust in democratic institutions, using survey data collected as part of Wave 2 of the 2025 Election Monitoring Survey Series (2025EMSS).

Our findings from January and February 2025 indicate a significant decline in optimism about Australia's future. While official economic indicators—such as low unemployment and declining inflation—suggest relative stability, public sentiment does not align with these measures. Life satisfaction has fallen to levels last observed during the COVID-19 pandemic, and over one-third of Australians report experiencing financial stress.

Economic perceptions are strongly associated with political attitudes. We find that national economic assessments in particular are stronger predictors of confidence in government, satisfaction with democracy, and populist sentiment. Those who perceive the national economy as worsening are significantly less satisfied with democracy, more distrustful of government institutions, and more receptive to populist narratives.

Importantly, Australians who believe life was better 50 years ago and will worsen over the next 50 years exhibit lower trust in government and stronger populist attitudes. Conversely, younger Australians express greater optimism but remain less politically engaged.

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